It’s All a Coin Toss

After another losing week against the spread, I have something to admit. It’s all a damn coin toss. It’s been established that the “best-of-the-best” handicappers in sports betting have about a mid-50’s winning percentage. It’s all pretty evened out, once the Vegas oddsmakers set the lines for every game each week. Sure, the public and sharps might move the line based on increased action but it all settles at the same spots which are the exact point that lends itself to being a 50-50 toss-up on which side will win. The betting line is the factor by which we even games out. It is the one thing that keeps games interesting. For example, I am headed to the NC State vs. Clemson game this weekend. The spread is Clemson -33.5. This is pretty much going to be a blowout. The sole reason I will be at the edge of my seat throughout this game is to see if Clemson can cover this large spread. Something tells me there will be two minutes left in the game and one team will be driving to somehow backdoor covered this line. This is why betting makes sports fun to watch. You can have a blowout game like this be the most dramatic game of the weekend if you have $100 on the Wolfpack +33.5 and they lose by “only 33”. However, because Vegas is so deadly precise with most of their assessments of where they lay the lines at, it creates this horrifically even choice between two teams one must make. Essentially, they create a 50-50 chance of an outcome for every game. That is the ultimate goal of every Vegas sports book. Have 50% of the people on one team and 50% on the other. They take the 10% juice and never lose. $1Million on the Tigers -33.5 and $1Million on the Wolfpack +33.5. They win an easy $100,000. So, every time you think you have a “lock”, do yourself a favor and just flip that coin and pick a team that way, because Vegas is just too damn good…..
Even though it is all just an educated guess, I am determined to finish this year over .500 ATS. Tough week last week, so looking for a huge bounce back week. Let’s see if I can make it happen. I am very overdue for a big week. My office NFL pick em where I pick my best 6 games ATS each week has me at 67% winning percentage. Of course, I only publish my NCAA picks, so I have no real “proof” of my NFL success this year. I will just have to fight back on college ball. I have a month to get back on track.

Penn State -6.5 at Minnesota – I think the Nittany Lions D might be too tough for a Minnesota team who really hasn’t played anyone up to PSU’s caliber. 

Penn State 31 Minnesota 17

Alabama -5.5 vs. LSU – Tua is coming back and I think he makes this his Heisman game and outplays Joe Burrow. I expect a big game from Jerry Jeudy.

Alabama 38 LSU 27

TCU +3 vs. Baylor – Stop it. 8-0 Baylor against a TCU team that has lost 3 of their last 4, and the line is only 2.5. Hahahaha.

TCU 27 Baylor 23

Notre Dame -7.5 at Duke – The Blue Devils took my soul when they pulled a Seattle Seahawks on first down at the goal line with 18 seconds left against UNC. Duke’s offense won’t be able to sustain a steady flow of points against the Irish.

Notre Dame 31 Duke 20

Ohio State -42 vs. Maryland – After a quick start to the year, Maryland has shown why they have one of the worst coaching staffs in the country along with horrible QB play.

Ohio State 49 Maryland 3

Louisville +7 vs. Miami – Sure, Miami beat FSU. But they have struggled this season and Louisville is on the upswing.

Miami 27 Louisville 23

Illinois +14.5 at Michigan State – The Spartans have screwed with me all year. I hate them.

Michigan State 28 Illinois 17

Northwestern -2 vs. Purdue – Northwestern can’t score but I think Purdue comes down a bit after that emotional win last week.

Northwestern 20 Purdue 17

Arizona State -1.5 vs. USC – This is where it ends for Clay Helton.

Arizona State 31 USC 27

Texas -7 vs Kansas State – Texas is due for a breakout game. Kansas State is due to have a clunker.

Texas 34 Kansas State 24

Kentucky -1 vs. Tennessee – Mark Stoops is trying to look good for FSU. Tennessee has been playing much better but their fans are starting to feel too good. Take a step back, Vols fans.

Kentucky 24 Tennessee 20

Season ATS record: 43-49