Another weekend of winning picks as we even hit the 5 team parlay on the podcast for good measure! This week the lines are pretty sharp and there is some hold your nose plays with value so bear with me on this one.
Cinci -14 vs. USF
I grabbed this line on the opener early in the week at 9.5 but I still like it at 2 TDs. I will continue to fade USF for the rest of the year as they were overrated because of their 7-0 start. Tulane and Houston both cashed for us the last 2 weeks so I see no reason to get off the #fadethebulls train.
Maryland +120 Moneyline vs. Indiana
Maryland is the definition of a one-dimensional football team and when they face teams like MSU it gets ugly. But when they go against teams that aren’t so stout upfront they can put up points. Here is a good matchup for the Terps as they face an Indiana squad that has not been good against the run this year. Backing a running dog when it gets cold in November has always been a recipe for success and I will continue to do that here.
Miami +3 vs. Georgia Tech
This one seems like a no-brainer to back Georgia Tech as they are coming off back to back double digit wins while Miami has really struggled as of late with no good solution at QB. However, when you look a bit closer you see our SSA lines shows value here on Miami as we make the line closer to PK. Also, teams with athletic defensive lines have performed well against the triple option and Mark Richt has also fared well against the option even going back to his days at Georgia. I’ll hold my nose here and back the Canes.
Florida -6 vs. South Carolina
Florida predictably came out flat last week against a Missouri team that matched up very well with them. This week they get to face a very banged up South Carolina team that is down to its 5th and 6th stingers in the secondary. This is just the kind of game Felipe Franks needs to get back on track facing this broken defense. I like the Gators at home to win and cover.
Ohio State -3 (buy hook) vs. Michigan State
I was on Michigan State last week against the Terps and even though they won the game they once again just do not impress me. Really all they are good at is stopping the run on defense and running the ball on offense and this Ohio State team thrives throwing the ball. I just don’t see Michigan State scoring enough points here. I’ll take the Buckeyes.
Mississippi State +24 vs. Alabama
This is the ultimate hold onto your butts bet of the week for sure. Going against the Bama team is downright frightening however there just too much line value here to pass up as our SSA line for this game is 18 and these Bulldog players are no scrubs. Additionally, Bama is coming off a huge emotional game at LSU and you have enough here for me to bite the bullet and take the points with the dog to keep it close enough.
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