Three games into the season we are relying more and more on the on-field data and moving away from our pre-season numbers. We still often lean on our fundamentals of coaching and recruiting while we layer in what we have learned from the teams so far. Let’s jump into some plays for this week!
UNC +3.5 vs. Pitt
UNC is still looking for there first win of the season and had there game last week canceled but I think you are catching some value here as Pitt is coming off an upset win against Georgia Tech last week but didn’t look particularly amazing in that game. UNC still has better talent in this matchup and you are getting points with them at home so I’ll roll with the home dog in this one.
Louisville +5 at Virginia
Louisville struggled last week relying on a late 4th quarter drive to come away with a victory against Western Kentucky. A big takeaway from last week’s game is who will be the QB for Louisville. Malik Cunningham led the second half comeback and is taking over for Jawon Pass. With Cunningham in, he helps open up the run game and Petrino should find some interesting ways to work that into the playbook. Meanwhile, Virginia looked good last week putting up big points against Ohio. However, this is a step up in talent for them as they will be facing the Cardinals. I give the coach and talent advantage to Louisville here and not only think they have what it takes to cover but I would also sprinkle a little on the ML as I have a hunch they win this one outright.
Baylor -7 vs Kansas (buy hook)
Baylor struggled last week against Duke but a deeper look at the box score shows the game was much closer than the score indicated. I like this Baylor team to start turning it around this year and this is a great spot for them to show what they can do against a Kansas team that still doesn’t have the players to run with Baylor here. Take the Bears and buy the hook as I could see the Bears winning this one by 7.
Texas +3.5 vs. TCU
Texas showed a little life last week as they managed to take care of USC at home and now take on a TCU team coming off their biggest game of the year giving Ohio State everything they had. TCU has owned this series lately but I think Texas may have turned a corner and getting over a field goal at home is too much value here for me to pass up as our SSA line makes Texas the favorite here.
Michigan -17 vs. Nebraska
Jim Harbaugh is mad… He is mad that people are saying he is overrated. He is mad that he lost the opener to Notre Dame. He is mad that he can’t find any good sushi in Ann Arbor! He is going to take that rage out on pretty much every team they face this year that they have significant talent edge against and this Nebraska team certainly qualifies. I like them to cover the points here and steamroll the Cornhuskers.
Iowa State -18 vs. Akron
Akron had their biggest win of the season last week against Northwestern, but this team is not very good. In fact, it took some lucky turnovers for them to come out with the win in that one. Now they have to go up against a solid Cyclone team that doesn’t beat themselves and knows how to score the football giving Oklahoma a decent scare last week despite everyone calling for them to get blown out in a revenge game from last year. I like Iowa State to cover and send Akron crashing back down to earth.
San Diego State -10.5 vs. Eastern Michigan
Eastern Michigan has served me well in the past as they got me the ML win in week two against Purdue. However, they are now going on the road for the 3rd consecutive week and face a San Diego State team that likes to pound the football. I like Aztecs to wear out this Eastern Michigan team which should fare better later in the year as they get to spend some time at home.
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