AAC Betting Preview

Click on a team for their full betting preview and suggested picks

1. UCF (51% Div WP, 31% Conf WP)
Win Division (-158), Win Conference (+135)
The Knights had an amazing season last year going 13-0 including a win over Auburn in the Peach Bowl. They enter this season as the favorite to take the AAC and with good reason. However, they only bring back 12 starters and will be under the direction of a new head coach. 5dimes knows they’ll get a ton of action on UCF regardless of the odds, so stay away from these futures plays.

2. South Florida (24% Div WP, 12% Conf WP)
Win Division (+400), Win Conference (+1100)
Charlie Strong inherited a great roster last season as the Bulls went 10-2 with a bowl win. But Quinton Flowers is now gone and the Bulls only bring back 11 starters. While this USF team won’t be as good as last year’s, UCF won’t be as strong either. That means the Bulls could take the East and the AAC. This is more of a pick against UCF than it is for USF

3. Temple (19% Div WP, 9% Conf WP)
Win Division (+500), Win Conference (+1500)
Temple finished the season strong last year winning four of its final five games. Geoff Collins is the second year here as head coach and expect the Owls to be competitive in the East.

4. Cincinnati (4% Div WP, 1% Conf WP)
Win Division (+1750), Win Conference (+8800)
Luke Fickell can flat out recruit. The problem for Bearcats is that Fickell is only in his second season. This team will make some noise in the AAC, but it won’t be this year.

5. East Carolina (1% Div WP, <1% Conf WP)
Win Division (+4400), Win Conference (+45000)
That seat is getting hot for Scottie Montgomery. The Pirates have not looked good in Montgomery’s first two seasons and unfortunately for the ECU alumni they likely won’t look good this year either. This team was outscored by an average of 20 points last season and should battle UConn for the bottom spot in the East.

6. Connecticut (1% Div WP, <1% Conf WP)
Win Division (+4000), Win Conference (+30000)
If you think Connecticut will contend for the conference title you’re wrong. This team struggled last year, only returns 9 starters, and has the worst talent ranking in the conference. It will be a tough season for the Huskies.

1. Memphis (43% Div WP, 24% Conf WP)
Win Division (+117), Win Conference (+270)
Mike Norvell has continued the winning ways set forth by Justin Fuente. The Tigers are the best team in the West and should battle it out with UCF for the conference title. The problem with being the favorite is that you’re the favorite and oddsmakers will never give you a favorable futures lines.

2. Houston (21% Div WP, 9% Conf WP)
Win Division (+300), Win Conference (+750)
Houston has the best player in the country in DT Ed Oliver. But football is a team sport and the best team in the West is Memphis. Houston could take the division and should take it if they can defeat Memphis on the road in the final week of the regular season.

3. Navy (15% Div WP, 7% Conf WP)
Win Division (+560), Win Conference (+1600)
In their first three years in the AAC Navy is 18-7 in conference play. Niumatalolo has found a formula for success here and should field a competitive team once again this year. Winning the conference will tough, but it could happen.

4. Tulane (9% Div WP, 3% Conf WP)
Win Division (+1000), Win Conference (+5000)
Willie Fritz has instilled discipline in this Tulane team and they play extremely sound football. Unfortunately, the Green Wave lack the horses to win this race and have only an outside shot at taking the West.

5. SMU (6% Div WP, 2% Conf WP)
Win Division (+1000), Win Conference (+5000)
Chad Morris took this team to a bowl game last year and then took the Arkansas job. Sonny Dykes is the new HC and his style of offense should put up some big numbers. But new schemes take time to implement and this will be a transition year for the Mustangs.

6. Tulsa (5% Div WP, 2% Conf WP)
Win Division (+1650), Win Conference (+10000)
It’s hard to explain last year for the Golden Hurricane. After a 10-3 record in 2016 Tulsa posted a 2-10 mark in 2017. They do bring back 15 starters but it’s hard to understand what’s going on in Philip Montgomery’s program. While it isn’t a model suggested play, at 100:1 to win the conference why not take a shot on a team that was really good two seasons ago.

About Jordan Sundheim 165 Articles
Jordan Sundheim is a veteran of the sports analytics field with a background in both athletics and statistics. He earned his master's at Duke, coached football at Stanford, and is currently a sports analytics consultant.