There is an old saying out there, that the best way to get over someone is to get under someone. Although I don’t condone this type of behavior, there can be tremendous value being in an over or under position.
Okay, get your minds out of the gutter people…I’m talking about sports betting. Everyone focuses on the spread, and that’s where the vast majority of the money comes in on bets. But there are also game TOTALS which can yield a lot of value and sometimes go below the radar unnoticed.
The public, or casual betters, tend to overload the over, especially on big name matchups (Cam Newton and the high powered Panthers going into Denver), as well as the always fun to watch Patriots.
When the public likes something I often will go the other way. I see a lot of value in the under.
Panthers/Broncos Under 42.5. Super Bowl rematch to kick off the season on a Thursday night…does the NFL know what they are doing or what? But wait, no Peyton Manning this time. Let’s face it, the race for the QB right now in Denver is a mess, after Brock departed to the Texans, they are left with Sanchez and Trevor Siemian battling it out. Carolina and Denver arguably had the 2 best defenses in the NFL last year, with the Broncos being historically good. Denver will have to battle a Panthers Defense with a QB who is not confident, and is opening the season against probably a team that will compete for the NFC title again this year in the Panthers. You get Butt fumble Sanchez, Siemian, or Rookie Paxton Lynch…so one of these Quarterbacks will crap their pants, and you can be assured the play calling for Denver will be conservative and feature a lot of running the football to eat up clock. Cam will also be facing a Broncos D that just doesn’t give an edge, and are masters at pressuring the QB, leading the league in Sacks in 2015 and takeaways. The wind at Mile High Stadium will be key that night for the field goal units, as I expect points to be at a super premium. Take the Under.
Patriots/Cardinals Under 48. As everyone knows, Brady is out, and Belicheck is smart. Belicheck is going to have to be a huge game manager with Garroppolo at the helm, going into the Lions Den of Arizona for the season opener. I am expecting Garrappolos mistakes will be kept to a minimum by some conservative play calling, especially early on. The Patriots also boast a very underrated defense this year, and will surprise some teams on that side of the football. Again, look for value in the under here.
– EZpick6 @ErikZawojski