EZ NFL Win Totals

Tennessee Over

A few NFL plays have stuck out and I’d like to share them with you all…as we will begin doing before every NFL week.  Let’s start with some Season Over Unders that stick out.

One of the big stats that I use to gain value for season total bets is turnovers from the previous year.  The reason behind this is turnovers can be one of the most random stats from year to year…especially fumbles.  And in a league where the margin of victory is ever so slight, turnovers are nothing short of devastating.  If you don’t have a come from behind Quarterback, which most teams do not, you can get stuck with multiple losses that could have easily been wins.  Here were the top 5 NFL teams in 2015 (6 listed total because of ties), the #1 team having the most turnovers in the league.

  1. Dallas (33)
  2. Tennessee (33)
  3. Denver (31)
  4. Philadelphia (31)
  5. Atlanta (30)
  6. Cleveland (30)

One anomaly last year was that Denver is on this list and went on to win the Super Bowl.  The reason for this is because Denver’s defense was great, far and away the best in the league, putting a stop to many drives after turnovers.  Broncos also were top 7 in the NFL in Takeaways with 27, so it essentially evened itself out because of their D.  But most teams don’t have this caliber defense to hold things together.

Tennessee over 5.5 wins. The Tennessee Titans are one team that I think will improve this year. They were plagued by turnovers, ranking first on our list from last year tied with the Cowboys with a whopping 33.  They are tied with the lowest win total projection on the year with the 49ers (5.5) for this season.  I expect their turnovers to drastically improve and for Mariotta to be on track for a 6 or 7 win year. Tennessee also had the 2nd most fumbles last year with 16, 2 behind the league leading Browns who coughed it up 18 times. These numbers should even out a little more for the Titans this year. Their schedule is manageable; they play the Colts twice, the Packers once at home, and the Broncos once at home but avoid playing the Steelers, Panthers, Patriots, Seahawks and Cardinals!  So of those 4 games which are their toughest on the year, 3 of them will be at home, and they won’t have to worry about a Brady, Cam, Wilson, or Big Ben getting in their way. Take the Over.

Atlanta Falcons under 7.5 wins. The Falcons schedule is brutal, and they may very well have the 4th best Quarterback in their division, behind Cam Newton, Drew Brees, and Jameis Winston. Combine that with a harsh schedule including opening up against in division rivals the Bucs, then traveling to a much improved Raiders team on the road. Next, they have one of toughest stretches in football going on the road to New Orleans, home verses the Panthers, on the road at Denver, and then on the road to face Seattle. Sell Sell Sell! Granted they coughed up the ball a ton last year, tied for fifth in the NFL, I don’t think an improvement there will save them. Hotlanta is getting cold.

Rams Under 7.5.  Everyone seems super pumped that pro football is back in LA after over 20 years. Combine that excitement with getting the first overall pick in Jared Goff and hopes are high in LA LA land. However, this is where the enthusiasm should end.  Before we give the Rams the NFC crown, let’s get back to reality. This organization has been in chaos for well over a decade. The Rams have been a mess and moving to LA will prolong this further. They may be starting to turn a corner, but they still play in one of the toughest divisions in football and are favored by less than a touchdown currently against the 49ers in week 1. Their last playoff trip was in 2004, and since then they have gone 6-10, 8-8, 3-13, 2-14,1-15, 7-9, 2-14, 7-8-1, 7-9, 6-10, and 7-9.  And let’s face it, moving is a bitch…whether it is your family or an entire NFL organization, it’s a stressful time and will put added pressure on this organization from the top down right from the beginning.  Oh, they also have to play the Seahawks and Cardinals twice, Carolina, and @ New England (Brady is back for this one).  After a few weeks of losing football again, fans will return to spending time doing other things in SoCal, like going to the beach or Disneyland. They may take that game 1 against the Niners, but fade the Lams.

Jacksonville over 7.5. Bortles has been very solid over his first 2 seasons, and the Jaguars have quietly been improving over that time as well…it’s not all swampy in the Bayou.  If you are skeptical, look at the Vegas line the first week of the regular season against Aaron Rodgers and the Pack at home, as Green Bay is only a 4.5 point favorite. That’s respect and should get you thinking. They also had the second youngest roster over the last two seasons so a lot of their young talent is maturing.

Tampa Bay over 7.5. Winston may be the real deal…he showed signs of greatness last year and is still only 22 years old.  The rest of the roster is talented as well. Tampa Bay won 6 games last year, but started off the season 1-3, and also finished the year with 4 straight losses. Those kinds of streaks are to be expected for a super young QB. If they can even out the streaks and work out the kinks faster, as their Quarterback is expected to mature, improve, and be more level headed, their team win total should improve as well. Look for the Over in TB.

– EZpick6 @ErikZawojski